Climate change losers and winners

Government Agency, Natural England, have spent seven years studying the most likely impacts of climate change on our most threatened plant and animal species. Their MONARCH (Modelling Natural Resource Responses To Climate Change) report was published in May 2007.

The report concentrated on 32 of the species selected for nature conservation action in the UK Biodiversity Action Plan. It concludes that we need to reduce habitat fragmentation to ensure that species are able to disperse and establish in new locations as the climate changes.

Volunteers from a wide range of conservation organisations play an important role in managing and protecting sites where these species are found. If you are not currently an active volunteer why not volunteer now with BTCV or with a member group of our Community Network?

Below are listed the species most likely to win and lose due to our changing climate:

Species most likely to suffer significantly

Skylark

Hotter weather could see the skylark refusing to migrate to this country from the northern continent and thus significantly reducing the numbers seen in Britain by the end of the century.

Song Thrush

It is expected that the song thrush, which is already in decline in the south east, will be forced to migrate further north in search of the slugs, snails and earthworms that it feeds on.

Black Grouse

The black grouse is currently found in North Wales, the Pennines and Scotland. It is predicted that it will be totally lost to Britain by 2080.

Capercaillie

Currently confined to central and northern Scotland where its distribution has declined since 1970s. Largely confined to cooler mountain areas. Total loss of suitable climatic conditions projected by 2050s.

Common Scoter

A national survey of breeding common scoters in 2007 found that the population had fallen by 45% since the previous survey in 1995, to just 52 breeding pairs. The population on Islay has virtually disappeared, and there are few birds left on Tayside, with the result that the species is virtually restricted to a few large lochs in the Inverness Glens and smaller lochs scattered across the Caithness and Sutherland Flows. The rate of decline since 1995 – 4.4% per annum – is one of the most severe recorded for a UK bird in recent years and, given its tiny size, we are in danger of losing the UK breeding population of common scoters.

Norwegian Mugwort

The Norwegian mugwort is a globally rare arctic alpine plant. In the UK it is found on only three mountain summits in Ross and Cromarty District and Sutherland in Northern Scotland. These plants are distinct from other populations of the species. Elsewhere, it occurs only in Norway and the Ural mountains.

Twinflower

In the UK twinflower has declined considerably because of the loss of native pinewoods, and a 64% reduction in records of its distribution has been observed in comparison to those from prior to 1970. The conservation objectives for the twinflower are to ensure that all the populations in Scotland are self-sustaining, and to restore twinflower to five sites where it formerly occurred.

Oblong Woodsia

Oblong woodsia is asmall, tufted fern found in Britain in tree-less, rock habitats above 350 m, mainly on cliffs and crags but occasionally on stable screes. Currently there are fewer than 100 plants known in the UK, distributed between 11 sites . Today, all colonies are declining or are at best stable, and all except the colony in Cumbria (around 80 plants) are extremely small (only 1-7 plants).

Species on the move

In addition to the species above which we may lose form Britain for ever, the following species are predicted to retreat northwards from the south of the country.

Some winners

Fifteen species are projected to gain climatic space: